A Look at the Upcoming Week (Sept. 23d – 29th)

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After an active early weekend, things will dry out and warm up over the next few days as a ridge builds into California, while storminess continues in the Pacific Northwest as the stalled out upper low continues to drive strong westerlies into that region. Temperatures will warm into the 80s by early in the week.

Wednesday, a trough will take an inland track down the western states, known as an ‘inside slider’, but it may be west enough to produce some showers in the sierra. The main notable effect across the region will be cooler temperatures, with 70s returning for most valley locations Wednesday and Thursday. As the trough slides eastward late Wednesday into Thursday and even lingering into early Friday, pressure gradients tighten and winds increase. Models differ a bit on wind potential due to track and trough strength and depth differences, so max wind is hard to nail down at the moment. No matter the strength, any north wind will just dry things out again and increase fire weather quickly. Even though most locations saw some precipitation Saturday, it’ll take a lot more than <1″ to sufficiently end the fire season (around 2 – 4″ depending on location). I’ll have a post on this wind event specifically by Monday when trough track and strength are better know.

00z GFS's 300mb winds and heights valid for Wednesday afternoon, indicating a northwest 100kt+ jet streak directed over northern California.

00z GFS’s 300mb winds and heights valid for Wednesday afternoon, indicating a northwest 100kt+ jet streak directed over northern California.

Outside of the midweek trough, not much action is forecast through the rest of the week. Temperatures rebound quickly over the weekend into next week… can’t rule out some 90s making it back onto thermometers.

Stay tuned for that post in the next couple of days regarding the upcoming trough and possible fire weather threat.

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